Canada has qualified for just one FIFA men's World Cup in the nation's history, but that is set to change ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Les Rouges are leading the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying by four points with three matches remaining, and there is a real possibility that Canada could qualify for its first World Cup since 1986. It's just one win away from clinching one of three direct berths.
Canada will have to wait until March to clinch a World Cup berth. A win in Costa Rica on March 24 would have Canada mathematically clear of five other teams and assured of a top-three finish and a ticket to Qatar.
MORE: How long is Alphonso Davies out for Canada?
CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings
Below are the current standings in the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF region.
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.* Canada | 25 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 5 | +14 |
| 2.* USA | 21 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 7 | +9 |
| 3.* Mexico | 21 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | +6 |
| 4.* Panama | 17 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 |
| 5. Costa Rica | 16 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 |
| 6. El Salvador | 9 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 |
| 7. Jamaica (E) | 7 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 |
| 8. Honduras (E) | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -17 |
*The top three teams earn direct berths to Qatar 2022, while fourth place will head to an intercontinental playoff against a nation from Oceania. Eliminated teams noted with an (E).
Canada World Cup qualifying schedule & results
Below is the full list of Canada's past results and upcoming matches in the quest for 2022 World Cup qualification.
| Date | Match | Time (ET) | TV / Stream |
| Sept. 2, 2021 | Canada 1, Honduras 1 | Highlights | |
| Sept. 5, 2021 | USA 1, Canada 1 | Highlights | |
| Sept. 8, 2021 | Canada 3, El Salvador 0 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 7, 2021 | Mexico 1, Canada 1 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 10, 2021 | Jamaica 0, Canada 0 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 13, 2021 | Canada 4, Panama 1 | Highlights | |
| Nov. 12, 2021 | Canada 1, Costa Rica 0 | Highlights | |
| Nov. 16, 2021 | Canada 2, Mexico 1 | Highlights | |
| Jan. 27, 2022 | Honduras 0, Canada 2 | Highlights | |
| Jan. 30, 2022 | Canada 2, USA 0 | Highlights | |
| Feb. 2, 2022 | El Salvador 0, Canada 2 | Highlights | |
| Mar. 24, 2022 | Costa Rica vs. Canada | TBD | |
| Mar. 27, 2022 | Canada vs. Jamaica | TBD | |
| Mar. 30, 2022 | Panama vs. Canada | TBD |
How many points to qualify for the World Cup?
If we’re using past regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historical comparisons, we need to use the points per game metric (PPG), since there were only 10 matches played in the CONCACAF final round in past cycles (compared to the 14 on the calendar in the lead-up to Qatar 2022).
While the number of matches was different, the top three spots still qualified directly to each World Cup tournament listed below (points per game of each qualified team indicated in bold). And since the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place team advanced to a playoff against a nation from another region.
The table below outlines the points per game (PPG) for each standings position since 1998 and the current PPG for each team in 2022 qualifying.
| Qualifying | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | — | — |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | — | — |
| 2010 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2014 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | — | — |
| 2018 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2022* | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Canada qualifying results projection
Canada has 25 points with three matches remaining (2.3 points per game). So it is well within reach of the minimum 1.8-1.9 points-per-game range (25-27 points) it should need to qualify without presumably breaking a sweat, though it will want to make sure there's no drama during the March slate of matches.
MORE: Which teams have qualified for the 2022 World Cup?
We took a stab at projecting results for the final three matches, taking a less favorable set of outcomes to find the minimum required to comfortably qualify. Canada is currently undefeated in first place, but it only has one home game remaining in its final three (vs. Jamaica on March 27) with two road trips to Central America coming up (in Costa Rica and Panama).
The less favorable set of outcomes includes two away losses in those road matches at Panama and Costa Rica. The resulting projected total of 28 points (and a 2.0 points-per-game mark) should be more than enough to qualify. Thanks to its nine-point winter haul, Canada has plenty of room for error.
| Match | Date | Opponent / Result | PPG |
| 12 | Thursday March 24, 2022 | Canada @ Costa Rica (Loss) | 2.0 |
| 13 | Sunday March 27, 2022 | Canada vs. Jamaica (Win) | 2.2 |
| 14 | Wednesday March 30, 2022 | Canada @ Panama (Loss) | 2.0 |
When might Canada secure World Cup qualification?
With three matches remaining in the qualification cycle (nine available points) and an eight-point lead on fourth place, Les Rouges are on the cusp and with one more win, it will get the job done. If Canada doens't clinch on March 24, the schedule sets up for the March 27 home match against Jamaica to be a World Cup celebration like Canada hasn't seen in generations.
Canada is unbeaten in 11 matches, with seven wins, including six in a row. The ability to secure results on the road has been key. They picked up two road wins (in Honduras and El Salvador) and draws on the road against the United States, Mexico and Jamaica. Add those to a 5W-0L-1D home record, including a famous 2-1 home win over Mexico and the 2-0 win over the USA, and the points have come in bunches.
MORE: How the World Cup intercontinental playoffs work
At this point Canadian fans will be more than content that the team controls its own destiny heading into the final set of qualifiers with the head-to-heads against the USA and Mexico officially out of the way.
CONCACAF standings tiebreakers
There's always a possibility that the CONCACAF standings are extra tight and that Canada is tied on points with one or more of the other nations in the qualifying standings. Tiebreakers would come into play.
Here are the standings tiebreakers for teams even on points:
- Goal difference in all group matches
- Most goals scored in all group matches
- Most points obtained from group matches between teams concerned
- Goal difference from group matches between teams concerned
- Most goals scored in group matches between teams concerned
- Goals scored away from home (if two teams are tied)
- Discipline points (based on yellow/red cards)
- Drawing of lots by FIFA
The Qatar World Cup will be played from Nov. 21 to Dec. 18, 2022.