AFCON 2022 group scenarios: How each national team advanced to the Round of 16

Riyad Mahrez - Algeria - January 16, 2022

If you've watched international football tournaments, the final day of group matches, with its simultaneous kickoffs, can offer unique entertainment.

The stakes for the group-stage finales at AFCON 2022 were high, with defending champion Algeria and African power Ghana suffering shock eliminations. Tunisia is fortunate to have made it, while tiny Comoros found a way into the knockouts.

The top two teams in each group advanced, along with the four best third-place teams.

Of course, tiebreaker rules came into play in the case of teams tied on points in the final group standings. Here's the short list of tiebreakers when two teams finished even on points, as laid out in the official competition rules  (Page 31):

  1. Most points obtained in matches between the two teams;
  2. Goal difference in all group matches;
  3. Most goals scored in all group matches;
  4. Drawing of lots (i.e. random draw).

With that in mind, here were the scenarios that allowed each team to advance on the final matchday. The final third-place standings also help illustrate the four teams that completed the field

Round of 16

Date Match
Sun, Jan. 23 Burkina Faso vs. Gabon
Sun, Jan. 23 Nigeria vs. Tunisia
Mon, Jan. 24 Guinea vs. Gambia
Mon, Jan. 24 Cameroon vs. Comoros
Tues, Jan. 25 Senegal vs. Cape Verde
Tues, Jan. 25 Morocco vs. Malawi
Wed, Jan. 26 Ivory Coast vs. Egypt
Wed, Jan. 26 Mali vs. Equatorial Guinea

AFCON qualifiers by group

The top two teams in each group advanced to the Round of 16:

Group 1st Place 2nd Place
A Cameroon Burkina Faso
B Senegal Guinea
C Morocco Gabon
D Nigeria Egypt
E Ivory Coast Eq. Guinea
F Mali Gambia

AFCON 3rd place qualification

The 12 teams above were joined in the Round of 16 by the four best third-place teams. Here's the final table indicating the four which advanced:

3rd-Place Team Group PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Cape Verde-X A 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
2. Malawi-X B 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
3. Tunisia-X F 3 3 1 2 0 4 2 +2
4. Comoros-X C 3 3 1 2 0 3 5 -2
5. Sierra Leone-E E 2 3 0 1 2 2 3 -1
6. Guinea-Bissau-E D 1 3 0 2 1 0 3 -3

X = Qualified to Round of 16 | E = Eliminated


Group A scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Cameroon- X 7 3 2 0 1 7 3 +4
2. Burkina Faso- X 4 3 1 1 1 3 3 0
3. Cape Verde-X 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
4. Ethiopia- E 1 3 0 2 1 2 6 -4

X = Qualified for Round of 16 | E = Eliminated

With two draws to close out Group A, none of the positions changed on the final matchday. 

Host Cameroon needed just one point in its final group game to clinch the top spot and got it. The Indomitable Lions have a full week's rest before starting their knockout adventure Jan. 24.

Burkina Faso joined them in the Round of 16 after finishing even on points with Cape Verde but winning the first tiebreaker (most points obtained in matches between teams) by virtue of its 1-0 win over the Cape Verdeans.

But with four points in the group stage, Cape Verde has also advanced as one of the four best third-place teams. It will move on to face tournament favorite Senegal in the Round of 16.


Group B scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Senegal- X 5 3 1 0 2 1 0 +1
2. Guinea- X 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
3. Malawi-X 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
4. Zimbabwe- E 3 3 1 2 0 3 4 -1

X = Qualified for Round of 16 | E = Eliminated

Similar to Group A, the standing places in Group B also finished unchanged after the final matchday due to the combination of results: Senegal-Malawi ended 0-0 and Zimbabwe beat Guinea 2-1.

Pre-tournament favorite Senegal finished in the top spot despite not playing its best football and scoring just one goal. However, it conceded none.

Guinea lost and could not take advantage of Senegal dropping points on the final day. But Guinea still finished in second place because it owned the head-to-head tiebreaker against Malawi (1-0 victory in the group stage).

Had Malawi found a way to beat Senegal, there would have been a serious shuffle in positions. As such, Malawi will settle for being one of the four best third-place teams, advancing to face Morocco in the Round of 16.

Last-place Zimbabwe was already eliminated heading into the final matchday (Malawi held the tiebreaker after its head-to-head victory over Zimbabwe), but it still ended the tournament on a positive note.


Group C scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Morocco- X 7 3 2 0 1 5 2 +3
2. Gabon- X 5 3 1 0 2 4 3 +1
3. Comoros-X 3 3 1 2 0 3 5 -2
4. Ghana- E 1 3 0 2 1 3 5 -2

X = Qualified to Round of 16 | E = Eliminated

The unthinkable happened in Group C, and African power Ghana was ousted in the group stage on the final matchday after a humiliating 3-2 loss to Comoros that left it at the bottom of the group.

The Black Stars were reduced to 10 men following a red card shown to Andre Ayew, but after an impressive fightback to bring it to 2-2, they conceded a late goal from which they could not bounce back.

Morocco qualified as the first-place team after battling back twice from a deficit to tie Gabon 2-2 in the group finale. It needed a late Achraf Hakimi strike to equalize and earn the draw it needed to advance as the top team in the group.

If Gabon had held on, it would have gone through as the top team, dropping Morocco to second place. But as it stands, it will have to settle for the group runner-up position, which will see it face Burkina Faso in the opening match of the AFCON Round of 16.

Comoros, shockingly, has qualified as a third-place team, a fabulous achievement for the tiny island nation in its first AFCON tournament.


Group D scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Nigeria- X 9 3 3 0 0 6 1 +5
2. Egypt- X 6 3 2 1 0 2 1 +1
3. Guinea-Bissau- E 1 3 0 2 1 0 3 -3
4. Sudan- E 1 3 0 2 1 1 4 -3

X = Qualified to Round of 16 | E = Eliminated

Everything went according to script in Group D with favorites Nigeria and Egypt both winning their final matches via shutout with little real suspense.  

Of course, Nigeria was already through as the first-place team since it owned the tiebreaker (1-0 win over Egypt) over the Pharaohs, but it still finished off the job with a perfect record.

Egypt also finished the job and qualified, although Mohamed Salah's side still hasn't shown scintillating form. They'll need to hit their peak in the knockout rounds, where the Egyptians will be facing the Ivory Coast to start the Round of 16.

Stuck on a single point each, Guinea-Bissau and Sudan bow out. That was a favorable development for other teams in other groups that were hoping to be among the four best third-place teams and qualify for the knockouts.


Group E scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Ivory Coast-X 7 3 2 0 1 6 3 +3
2. Equ. Guinea-X 6 3 2 1 0 2 1 +1
3. Sierra Leone-E 2 3 0 1 2 2 3 -1
4. Algeria-E 1 3 0 2 1 1 5 -4

While Ghana's elimination was surprising, losing the defending champions in the group stage was downright shocking. Algeria fell to Ivory Coast 3-1 in an emphatic result, seeing the Elephants top the group and the Fennec Foxes eliminated at the bottom of the bunch.

It was a massively disappointing result for Riyad Mahrez and Algeria, who nearly failed to score a single goal all tournament until Sofiane Bendebka's consolation with 17 minutes to go against Ivory Coast broke the duck.

Equatorial Guinea's final-day win over Sierra Leone also confirmed their spot in the knockout stage, with Sierra Leone eliminated, unable to reach the necessary point total to qualify as a third-place team. That result also confirmed Comoros's place in the knockout stage, a stunning achievement for a tiny island nation in its first-ever AFCON tournament.


Group F scenarios

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Mali-X 7 3 2 0 1 4 1 +3
2. Gambia-X 7 3 2 0 1 3 1 +2
3. Tunisia-X 3 3 1 2 0 4 2 +2
4. Mauritania- E 0 3 0 3 0 0 7 -7

X = Qualified to Round of 16 | E = Eliminated

The top three teams in this group knew they were through before their final matches when the Group E results came in. All they were playing for was positioning.

Already-eliminated Mauritania had nothing to play for (it would have lost a third-place tiebreaker against Tunisia based on head-to-head result), and so Mali got the comfortable win it needed (2-0) to lock up the top spot in the group.

Gambia shocked Tunisia to finish level with Mali on seven points, but since Gambia and Mali tied 1-1 in their head-to-head, the second tiebreaker (overall goal difference) kicked in, favoring Mali by a single goal. 

There was a scenario in which Tunisia could have finished in first place, but after its second loss in three matches, it will settle for advancing as one of the best third-place teams. That placement rewards it with the unenviable task of facing Nigeria in the Round of 16.

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