Perhaps you heard the college football playoff rankings are out. There was hand-wringing galore at where teams sit in the initial top 10 of the poll. Cincinnati’s too low! Alabama’s too high! The eye test says Ohio State should be top four!
You know what upsets the top 10 apple cart more than anything else? Upsets. And that’s the world we live in here at the Underdog Challenge, where your merry band of prognosticators forecast the very upsets that make college football so special. Last week as a group, we nailed 6 of 12 predicted upsets, a hit rate gamblers drool over.
Our contest works this way -- each expert predicts three upsets per week. If the underdog wins, the expert receives as many points as that team was an underdog. So if you pick a team that is an underdog by 5 points and it wins, you get five points.
MORE: OU's bad spot in rankings | Bowl projections | 12 best games of the season
Here are our standings after Week 9
| PLACE | NAME | RECORD | POINTS |
| 1 | Bill Trocchi | 12-15 | 70 |
| 2 | Zac Al-Khateeb | 12-15 | 61 |
| 3 | Mike DeCourcy | 9-18 | 43.5 |
| 4 | Bill Bender | 8-19 | 41.5 |
On to the upsets.
Odds courtesy FanDuel.com
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
No. 9 Wake Forest (+2.5) at North Carolina
This should be a fun 'non-conference' shootout between quarterbacks Sam Hartman and Sam Howell. The Demon Deacons are underdogs despite a top-10 ranking. The Tar Heels allow 30.8 points per game. This is going to be a shootout, and it typically favors the home team. We like the Demon Deacons to break that trend.
Louisiana-Monroe (+3.5) vs. Texas State
Terry Bowden is trying to push the Warhawks toward bowl eligibility, and to do that they will need to pick up their first road victory. Both offenses have struggled and the defenses are bad. Still, Louisiana-Monroe finds a way to win ugly.
Mississippi State (+4.5) at Arkansas
The Bulldogs are starting to hit their stride under second-year coach Mike Leach. Quarterback Will Rogers is coming off his best game of the year, too. The Razorbacks have the second-best pass defense in the SEC, but Mississippi State is going to test that.
MORE: Picks against the spread for every Top 25 game in Week 10
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Purdue (+2.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan State
The Boilermakers have the Spartans right where they want them: undefeated, coming off a great rivalry win, preoccupied with their standing in the CFP rankings, making the trip to West Lafayette. Maybe it only seems like this is the kind of game in which the Boilers excel only because they did it that once, when Ohio State visited in October 2018. But it seems like the kind of game in which the Boilers excel. And if we want to shade this the right way, we can point out Purdue has won two of its past three. Let’s hope they find a way to stop the run.
No. 13 Auburn (+4.5) at No. 14 Texas A&M
After the big win last weekend over Ole Miss, which followed a week of controversy about head coach Bryan Harsin’s refusal to reveal his vaccination status, it seems entirely possible he’s on a mission to stack so many wins the school will be compelled to keep him, regardless. Not sure that’ll do it, but maybe he believes it’s worth a shot. This game is even a steeper climb, with the Aggies on a three-game win streak that began with an upset of Alabama, but let’s not forget their victims the past two weeks are a combined 2-7 in SEC play.
MORE: Betting trends you need to know for Auburn-Texas A&M
Temple (+15) at East Carolina
Since its impressive comeback victory over Memphis, Temple has done nothing but lose. In fact, the Owls have done nothing but lose badly. With freshman quarterback D’Wan Mathis learning on the job, the offense has produced just 24 points combined in those three defeats. ECU does not seem like they’re quite at the level, though, where they should be a two-touchdown favorite over anyone in their league. Having climbed above Bender in the standings, I could settle for trying to keep that lead intact, but, as a wise man who now coaches Arizona State once said, “You play to win the game.” So I’m coming for Trocchi and Al-Khateeb.
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
No. 13 Auburn (+4.5) at No. 14 Texas A&M
Theory: Auburn has the better quarterback, so it wins a tight one on the road. Texas A&M certainly has played very well since upsetting Alabama, but the two games since were against two of the weakest in the SEC. The offensive problems will show up against Auburn, which is sneaking into the SEC West title race after being written off following an early loss to Penn State.
No. 20 Mississippi State (+4.5) at Arkansas
Theory: Mississippi State has the better team. The Bulldogs have quality wins over No. 19 NC State, No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 18 Kentucky. Arkansas has lost three straight SEC games after its brilliant start, albeit against three good teams. This one’s a toss-up, so good value with the 4.5 points.
UTEP (+11.5) vs. UTSA
Theory: It is hard to go undefeated. UTSA stands at 8-0 and has been impressive pretty much all season. Head coach Jeff Traylor just signed an extension that will in theory take him out of the running for the Texas Tech and TCU jobs. But if this team is going to stumble, it is going to be a road game at night against a team that is 6-2 and boasts the No. 1 defense in Conference-USA. UTSA is a deserved favorite, but the upset possibility is real.
Zac Al-Khateeb, Content producer
Liberty (+8.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss
This isn’t a show of confidence in Liberty as much as it's a condemnation of Ole Miss’ defense: The Rebels have surrendered an average of 33.4 points per game since their bye, and Flames quarterback Malik Willis (1,986 passing yards, 21 touchdowns; 697 rushing yards, nine scores) is talented enough to make them pay for it. But will he be able to outperform Matt Corral in Hugh Freeze’s first return to Oxford? Most likely not, but the Rebels’ defense is suspect enough — and the spread too tempting — not to take a gamble on it.
Texas (+6.5) over Iowa State
Texas can’t keep giving up big leads to opponents forever. Can it? The Longhorns have suffered three such losses in consecutive games to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor, after all. Iowa State, meanwhile, couldn’t maintain its own momentum following a 24-21 win over the eighth-ranked Cowboys in Week 8, losing the following weekend to West Virginia. Suffice it to say both these teams have experience with disappointment in 2021. But we’ll pick Steve Sarkisian’s team to avoid monkey business — sorry, couldn’t help it — for a fourth straight week and get back on track with a much-needed win.
Maryland (+9.5) over Penn State
Can Taulia Tagovailoa lead Maryland to a win over Penn State? It’ll be a tough ask: He has 2,384 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, but also eight interceptions. That said, he hasn’t committed one in either of his last two games, the most recent of which — a 38-35 win over Indiana — saw him throw for 419 yards and two scores. Even with his struggles, he may be the better overall quarterback than Penn State counterpart Sean Clifford, who has 2,008 yards and 13 touchdowns to six interceptions. That shows in Penn State's fourth straight loss.