The next three matches — all at home — could define Canada’s quest to make its first men’s World Cup since 1986. The stretch starts with a Wednesday match against a Panama side sitting above Canada in the qualifying standings and that will be riding a wave of enthusiasm after a 1-0 win against a lackluster U.S. team.
The Canadians are undefeated after five matches in the 14-match regional qualifying schedule, but have tied four of those five matches (1-0-4), leaving them in fourth place (7 points), one point behind the Panamanians (8 points). The top three clinch direct berths to the 2022 Qatar World Cup, while fourth place advances to a play-in series. Home wins are vital in qualifying, especially against direct competitors for those top places.
Canada is coming off two road draws in Mexico (1-1) and Jamaica (0-0), generally positive results, though the Canadians feel they could have come away with a victory in both cases. They’ll look to make up for it against Panama, but Alphonso Davies & Co. will need to find a way to generate a more inspired attacking performance and get star striker Jonathan David back on the scoresheet. Panama has only conceded two goals in five matches.
MORE: Another reason Canadians can dream of a World Cup berth
Panama is a competitive side that managed to advance to the 2018 World Cup from the CONCACAF region. The Canaleros pride themselves on being tough to play against, and that ruggedness is combined with skill and guile, which helps keep them in most matches, including against Canada. The 12 all-time matches between the two, including friendlies, have featured six 0-0 draws, but Panama has yet to get a taste of the new-look Canada: The last time they played was in 2014.
If Canada can manage to beat Panama, it will climb above them in the standings and into the top three places. That would set it up for the next two matches in November, when it closes out the calendar year with two more home qualifiers in Edmonton against Costa Rica and Mexico.
MORE: Updated qualifying standings, schedule & highlights
How to watch Canada vs. Panama
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 13
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Streaming: SN NOW (Sportsnet), OneSoccer.ca
Canada’s World Cup qualifier from a near sold-out BMO Field in Toronto will be carried by Sportsnet’s SN NOW and OneSoccer.ca.
Canada vs. Panama: Lineups
With the return of starters Steven Vitoria, Richie Laryea and Tajon Buchanan from suspension, Canada is likely to return to its customary 3-4-3 formation. Now that he’s been in camp for a few more days since skipping the trip to Mexico, Junior Hoilett could be ready to start, in which case Jonathan Osorio would be the most likely to make room after playing 77 and 90 minutes in the previous two matches.
Although head coach John Herdman was holding out hope that Atiba Hutchinson, Cyle Larin and Lucas Cavallini could recover from injuries to be available in this October window, their inclusion doesn’t seem likely. Starting goalkeeper Milan Borjan (COVID-19) and defender Scott Kennedy (injury) were previously ruled out from this month’s qualifiers.
Canada projected starting lineup (3-4-3, left to right): 16-Maxime Crepeau-GK — 4-Kamal Miller, 5-Steven Vitoria, 2-Alistair Johnston — 22-Richie Laryea, 14-Mark-Anthony Kaye, 7-Stephen Eustaquio, 11-Tajon Buchanan — 19-Alphonso Davies, 20-Jonathan David, 10-Junior Hoilett
Canada projected subs: 1-James Pantemis-GK, 18-Dayne St. Clair-GK, 23-Derek Cornelius, 15-Doneil Henry, 3-Sam Adekugbe, 12-Zachary Brault-Guillard, 6-Samuel Piette, 21-Jonathan Osorio, 13-Liam Fraser, 9-Charles-Andreas Brym, 8-David Wotherspoon, 17-Liam Millar (Not included: Jacob Shaffelburg)
During the September window, Panama head coach Thomas Christiansen started the same lineup in all three games. Given the Panamanians’ performance in Sunday’s historic win against the USA, it would not be a surprise to see that same XI take the field. Captain Anibal Godoy was forced off the field against the USA with a second-half injury. If he can’t go, former Toronto FC midfielder Armando Cooper could get the start in front of his old crowd at BMO Field.
Christiansen did introduce two new faces for the match against the USA and both decisions were performance-based: Freddy Gondola played well on the left flank in place of Jose Luis Rodriguez, and former Columbus Crew player Cristian Martinez put forth a sensational effort in central midfield for Abdiel Ayarza, who struggled in the first match of the window against El Salvador.
Panama projected starting lineup (4-2-3-1, left to right): 1-Luis Mejia-GK — 15-Eric Davis, 3-Harold Cummings, 4-Fidel Escobar, 23-Michael Amir Murillo — 20-Anibal Godoy, 8-Cristian Martinez — 17-Freddy Gondola, 19-Alberto Quintero, 10-Edgar Barcenas — 14-Rolando Blackburn
Panama projected subs: 22-Orlando Mosquera-GK, 12-Jose Calderon-GK, 13-Jiovany Ramos, 2-Cesar Blackman, 5-Abdiel Ayarza, 21-Cesar Yanis, 6-Eduardo Guerrero, 7-Jose Luis Rodriguez, 11-Armando Cooper, 18-Ismael Diaz, 16-Alfredo Stephens, 9-Gaby Torres (Not included: Oscar Linton, Jair Catuy, Abdiel Arroyo, Jorge Gutierrez)
MORE: Why there is no VAR in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying
Canada vs. Panama: Betting odds & prediction
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Pick: Canada -1 Asian Handicap (2.07)
There will be great urgency for Canada to win this home match given its four draws in five qualifiers. The BMO Field support should be impactful and Canada will have a more rested core than Panama given the rotation — some of it forced — in the previous match.
Although the Canaleros will be tough to break down, the Canadians should be able to play their way through Panama’s press, with their talented dribblers wreaking havoc and creating matchup problems. Finishing has been an issue for the Canadians in the absence of leading scorer Cyle Larin, but they still manage to create chances at home with 2.39 expected goals (xG) against Honduras and 1.69 xG against El Salvador, their two best xG showings so far.
The “Canada -1 Asian Handicap” wins if the margin of victory for the home team is two or more goals. It’s a push if it’s a one-goal victory.
Prediction: Canada 2, Panama 0
Moneyline: Canada 1.58 / Draw 3.58 / Panama 6.46
Spread (Asian Handicap): Canada -0.5 (1.59) / Panama +0.5 (2.33)
O/U 2.5 total goals: Over 2.42 / Under 1.55
Both Teams To Score: Yes 2.31 / No 1.48