Who will Australia likely have to beat to get to the T20 World Cup final?

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Australia T20

Australia are set to face a tough assignment this October and November, as they look to win their first T20 World Cup in history.

Sitting in 7th place on the ICC T20 rankings heading into the tournament in the UAE, Justin Langer's side will be boosted by the returns of David Warner, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell and Pat Cummins.

After missing the disastrous series against Bangladesh and West Indies earlier in the year, the four stars will play a major role in their path to glory in this year's T20 World Cup.

But it won't be an easy task - first they'll have to get past a group that includes England and South Africa, who both sit ahead of them on the rankings, as well as West Indies, who they struggled against recently. 

T20 WORLD CUP GROUPS

There will be a qualifying period for eight nations to reach the 'Super 12s' stage of the tournament. 

Group A will consist of Sri Lanka, Ireland, Netherlands and Namibia, while Group B includes Bangladesh, Scotland, Papua New Guinea and Oman. 

Two nations from each of those groups wil move into the Super 12s group stage, with the two groups listed below. 

GROUP 1
  • England
  • Australia
  • South Africa
  • West Indies
  • A1 (likely Sri Lanka)
  • B2 (likely Scotland) 
GROUP 2
  • India
  • Pakistan
  • New Zealand
  • Afghanistan
  • A2 (likely Ireland)
  • B1 (likely Bangladesh)

The top two teams from each of those groups will qualify for the semi-finals, before the tournament concludes with the final on November 15th. 

AUSTRALIA'S LIKELY PATH TO T20 WORLD CUP FINAL 

The group stage

It will be a tricky one for Australia to navigate, with there no guarantees of even making it out of the group stage.

Assuming that Sri Lanka and Scotland join their Super 12s group, Australia will need to face those two nations as well as England, South Africa and West Indies.

England are the top-ranked side on the ICC rankings, while South Africa sit in 5th spot. Assuming that both those sides take care of all their other games, Australia will need to beat at least one of them to qualify for the semi-finals.

Also standing in their way are West Indies, who defeated the Aussies 4-1 in a recent T20 series.

They sit behind them in 9th spot the current rankings, and while Australia will see some big names return to the fold, there will be some scars there and the West Indies will go in with plenty of confidence. 

Australia's group stage schedule can be seen below. 

DATE OPPONENT VENUE
23rd October South Africa Zayed Cricket Stadium
29th October A1 (likely Sri Lanka) Dubai International Stadium
31st October England Dubai International Stadium
4th November B2 (likely Scotland Dubai International Stadium
6th November West Indies Zayed Cricket Stadium

The likelihood is the crunch game will be the first game of the tournament for Australia. If they can defeat the Proteas, they will put themselves in the box-seat to clinch 2nd spot in their group and qualify for the semis. 

If they defeat both South Africa and England, they will likely go into the semi-finals as the top-ranked country from their group. 

The semi-finals

Australia may have a tough assignment in their own group, but it's nothing compared to the opposite side of the draw.

India, Pakistan, New Zealand and Bangladesh are all ranked in the top six in the world, placing them ahead of Australia, but are all in the same group for the Super 12s. 

If the Aussies can make it to the semi-finals, they will play one of those four nations, but it will all depend on who finishes in 1st and 2nd spot in each group.

The winner of Group 1 will face second-place from Group 2, while the winner of Group 2 will face second-place from Group 1. 

All things being equal in the group stage, Australia will likely face India in the semi-finals. 

In the other semi-final, it would likely see England taking on New Zealand for a spot in the final on November 15th. 

The final

If they make it this far, Australia will have had an outstanding tournament considering their struggles in the shortest format of the game. 

England will shift to the other side of the draw in the semi-finals, which means there is a real possibility Australia could meet them twice (group stage and final) during the tournament.

All things being equal, England will likely play New Zealand in the semi-finals and should probably beat them as well. 

Likely scenario for Australia to make the final

  • Finish 2nd in Group 1 behind England
  • Defeat the winner of Group 2 in the semi-finals, which will likely be India 
  • England win the other semi-final over New Zealand and progress to the final
  • Australia meet their Group 1 rivals England in the final 
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